Quantitative Epidemiology and Modelling

Preliminary surveys and information from surveillance systems are providing hypotheses about risk factors. These risk factors - actually the determinants which can increase the likelihood of developing AI outbreaks - will be identify and quantify in the course of diverse analytical field studies implemented in Asia, Africa and Europe. Statistical, mathematical and spatial models are building up as decision-tools for a better understanding and managing of AI epizootics.

Surveillance and Risk Analysis

Surveillance and monitoring networks for early detection and warning are keys to effectively dealing with AI. Surveillance systems should be based on risk analysis which should be combined with economical figures. Evaluation of surveillance systems will be undertaken using quantitative methods for assessing the sensitivity and predictive value.

The risk of introduction and dissemination of avian influenza should be assessed at different levels: (i) risk of introduction by migrating birds; (ii) risk of importation; (iii) risk of spread from infected poultry; (iv) virus survival in the environment.