are based on statistical study of the distribution and determinants of avian flu in domestic and wild birds taking into account their ecological and socio-economical environment. Modelling
is under development in order to help to understand patterns and cycle of AI, to predict AI occurrence and to evaluate surveillance and control measures. Applied epidemiology
will bring together outputs of research and expertise activities for improving cost-effective surveillance
Quantitative Epidemiology and Modelling
Preliminary surveys and information from surveillance systems are providing hypotheses about risk factors. These risk factors - actually the determinants which can increase the likelihood of developing AI outbreaks - will be identify and quantify in the course of diverse analytical field studies implemented in Asia, Africa and Europe. Statistical, mathematical and spatial models are building up as decision-tools for a better understanding and managing of AI epizootics.
Animal Health Economics
Economical issues have to be studied on field considering the specific contexts of tropical regions. Socio-economical impact of AI, cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of control measures, including vaccination will be determined in infected countries and at-risk areas. Economical models are on progress and will be in the near future linked to the dynamics and spatial models (Health Geography).
Surveillance and Risk Analysis
Surveillance and monitoring networks for early detection and warning are keys to effectively dealing with AI. Surveillance systems should be based on risk analysis which should be combined with economical figures. Evaluation of surveillance systems will be undertaken using quantitative methods for assessing the sensitivity and predictive value.
The risk of introduction and dissemination of avian influenza should be assessed at different levels: (i) risk of introduction by migrating birds; (ii) risk of importation; (iii) risk of spread from infected poultry; (iv) virus survival in the environment.