Flutrop CIRAD Avian Influenza

Here we model the pathways leading to the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of the H5N1 subtype to Ethiopia through the legal import of day-old-chicks (DOC). The uncertainties, variability and randomness associated with the model inputs and final probabilities were implemented using Monte Carlo simulation (@Risk; Palisade Corp.). Our results suggest that under current conditions the risk of introducing virus through the legal trade of DOC is very low but is likely to occur. Furthermore, we would expect to import infection every 3.8 years (90%CI: 0.30-235) from the approved third countries considered (i.e. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom and the Netherlands) with an annual probability of importing at least one infected DOC of 23% (90%CI: 0.4%-96%). The number of parent stock testing positive at the countries of origin of the DOC is suggested to have the highest effect on both risk estimates (r=). Our simulations also suggest that the higher the level of poor compliance of the veterinary authorities at the border inspection posts (BIP) the lower the number of years between virus introductions in Ethiopia (r=). We report and discuss the impact of sensitivity analysis of the baseline assumptions on the uncertainty associated with both estimates of risk.